UFC 103 buyrate estimates
By Jim Murphy September 24th, 2009We’ve spoken to several entertainment/media sources who are estimating UFC 103’s buyrate to be in the 400k to 600k range. While a solid number never gets released, the recent breakdown of UFC PPVs goes like this (again these are all estimates):
UFC 100: 1.7 million
UFC 101: 1.05 million
UFC 102: 535,000
UFC 103: 400,000-600,000
For a long time our position is that while its obvious that the UFC could cut the number of PPVs and put on better cards, we ‘get’ the logic behind the ‘more is better’ strategy. On balance, you’re better having two cards doing 700,00k each than you are one card doing 1.2 million. Based on the recent event numbers, I’m not sure that’s the case any more. The UFC has a dependable core audience of right around 500,000 PPV buyers. To bring in more buys, the event has to seem like a ‘big deal’ to the mainstream sports fans, casual MMA fans, and other groups outside of the core audience. That’s why Kimbo Slice is getting a gig in the UFC regardless of what happens on TUF–people, and particularly people outside of the UFC’s core audience, have demonstrated a willingness to pay to watch him fight.
It may have reached a point where the UFC would be better served having fewer PPV events and making them bigger deals with ’stacked’ cards. Revenues aside, getting 1 million PPV buys for one event as opposed to 500,000 for two events isn’t a wash–the publicity and ‘buzz’ upside from the bigger event is extremely valuable for the promotion and makes it easier to promote other events in the future.
September 25th, 2009 at 3:40 am
Well these numbers seem like a bit of a downer. In my humble and totally whacked out opinion, the UFC needs to generate more interest in these events by having Akiyama sing between each of the main card fights.
September 25th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
Well there are two main things to consider. The first is that a lot of UFC fans go to establishments to watch fights, where I live, this seems to happen much more often than with boxing events.
Secondly, the last two times I’ve tried to order a UFC PPV from my cable provider, I was unable to get the broadcast, even though I wanted to pay to see it. Sadly I had to wait a few hours until it was leaked onto the net.
IMO it was probably hard for a lot of people to justify the $49.99 price for 103, which was a pretty substandard card. Maybe the UFC should consider flexible pricing options depending on the quality of the card (although I can already imagine a host of issues with that format).
I’d gladly pay $50 for UFC 100 all over again, some other cards? Not so much… As this post outlines, the UFC should switch to maybe a card once a month (instead of what seems to be about once every 3 weeks). Although I guess it doesn’t help that the UFC didn’t land Fedor and is losing guys like Rampage Jackson.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Those numbers listed are very high estimates in actuality 102 did a little over 400k and 103 did about the same. The one thing you are correct about is UFC will have to cut back on PPV’s. right now they are at the point of being over exposed, i’m a huge MMA fan but I haven’t been pumped up for a fight card in a while. They seem to be filling their cards with lots of garbage lately, I understand roster is getting bigger but its no excuse.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Johnny–
Here in Portland, you see a similar phenomenon with the UFC events in bars. I will say that you saw a lot more of that six months or so ago. I talked to a number of bar owners for the article on UFC 102 which was was held here in The Rose City, and they generally said that interest in the UFC is ‘up and down’. It was ‘hot’ last winter through UFC 100, and has been ‘cooling off’ since. Now, here in Portland a lot of that is probably seasonal–summertimes are ’slow’ for bars, restaurants, etc. as a lot of people do ‘outdoor stuff’ during the summer. As you no doubt have heard, much of the year is cool and rainy and that’s when ‘indoor activities’ like bars, movies, etc. do really well.
In an ‘informal survey’ I conducted by looking at the bar ads in our local free arts and entertainment newspapers it seemed there was a pretty even split between bars showing the Mayweather fight and the UFC.
And don’t forget that the Mayweather fight had closed circuit theater showings in a number of cities and that did very well. Personally, I’d love for the UFC to do this–its kind of the ‘old school’ PPV and was common during the 1970’s for big fights. Its a fun atmosphere–not quite as good as being there live but still an enjoyable way to watch fights.
September 25th, 2009 at 7:56 pm
Wicked–
As you’re no doubt aware the UFC never releases ‘official’ PPV numbers so the actual numbers are anyone’s guess. They never even confirmed the UFC 100 number (other than Dana White confirming it was over 1 million buys) which was through the roof (1.7 million plus).
And you’re 100% correct that the past two UFC cards have been kind of lackluster. Actually, I thought that UFC 103 had good matchups ‘on paper’ for hardcore MMA fans but they lacked any big names to bring in more casual fans. If I were the UFC, I’d be concerned about overexposing my product at this point–I get the value of exposing it to new fans, but IMO the biggest risk is killing the excitement of the existing fan base. It might be a good idea for them to cut back the number of PPVs, maybe even charge $5 more for them and stack the card with killer fights like the did for UFC 100.